- Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman will be indicted for corruption. Yisrael Beitenu is nothing without Lieberman, and it will break up into different factions following his resignation. This will lead to Netanyahu's government losing the parliamentary majority, which would either lead to Kadima joining the government and forcing Netanyahu to reach a peace deal, or it would lead to Tzippi Livni becoming prime minister, with the Likud and Labor as her coalition partners. Another option is new elections, but I don't want that to happen just yet, considering the fact that the 19th Knesset might end up being worse than the current one.
- Reformist protests will overthrow the Iranian Ayatollahs. An angry mob will lynch Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (sorry, too hateful?). A new democratic form of government will be instituted, the nuclear weapons program will be brought to an end, and so will aid to terrorist groups like Hamas and Hizbullah.
- A peace accord will be reached between Israel and the Palestinians. The Palestinian State will constitute Gaza and the West Bank, with slight deviations from the green line. Most of East Jerusalem will become the Palestinian capital, while Jewish areas and the Western Wall will remain part of Israel's capital. No refugees will be allowed to return, but they will be compensated. Hamas will see there's no use in fighting anymore, will agree to the accord reached by Israel and Fatah, and will disarm and recognize Israel.
- I'll finally figure out how to get to where I want to be professionally in the future.
A Great Day for *The Atlantic*
2 weeks ago
I haven't got much time so here's some clunky soundbites.
ReplyDelete1. Oh, goody: several BNP-style parties for the price of one!
I've no real reason to believe Livni will be much better than Olmert, Shitanyahu or Barak.
2. Yawn. Reform in Iran would be great and it would take some wind out of the Likuders that want to 'couple' Iran to the Palestinian question. But wishing someone dead for something he didn't say isn't very nice...
3. I suggest you read Harta Barta, if you haven't already...
4. Good luck!
1. Agree with the first bits but after Gaza 09, I don't trust Livni nor Barak.
ReplyDelete2. Again, agree with the first bits but disagree with your categorisation of Hamas n Hezbollah as terrorist groups - the world isn't that black & white. Also, it's quite obvious now that Ahmedinejad is just a puppet - Khameini pulls the strings. Final thing, it's naive to think the nuclear programme will disappear if Iran is a democracy. Doesn't Israel have nuclear weapons? And India?
3. Mostly agree apart from the right of return bit. Some Palestinians should be allowed back, maybe in proportion with Jewish immigration so that the demographics stay the same.
4. Good Luck
Hmm, I was certain I replied to Gert a while back. Guess I didn't. I'll reply to both of you, then:
ReplyDelete1. Several weak BNP-style parties are much better than one strong BNP-style party.
I'm not crazy about Livni and Barak (especially Barak), though not for the same reasons as you two. Unfortunately, we've got to deal with what we've got, and I don't see anybody better than Livni becoming a serious candidate any time soon.
2. Believe me, if Iran became a democracy, I really wouldn't mind it having nuclear weapons.
3. Gert, we haven't been serious about negotiations that actually reach results, that is true. I hope that will change.
Shafiq, I don't think there would be much support in Israel for the return of even a small number of Palestinians to Israel proper.
4. Thanks!