All polls now show that the right wing will have a majority in the next Knesset. How large the majority will be varies wildly from poll to poll, with estimates ranging from 62 seats to 70-plus, out of a total of 120 Knesset seats. It seems certain Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next prime minister.
Unless Netanyahu decides to form a unity government with Kadima and Labor, his natural coalition partners would be Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Our Home) and the four religious parties. There is a problem here, though. Lieberman and the ultra-Orthodox parties don't like each other. Both sides share a disdain for democracy, but each takes it in a different direction. Yisrael Beitenu wants all citizens to declare their loyalty to the State of Israel or lose their citizenship. This, of course, is aimed at Arab citizens, but soon enough it will reach whoever has the wrong political views, in Lieberman's eyes. Shas and United Torah Judaism, the two ultra-Orthodox parties, don't necessarily object to this. They do object to the only part of Lieberman's platform that I agree with: making the country more secular, including non-religious marriages.
Shas and UTJ, on the other hand, would like to make Israel a Medinat Halacha, Halacha being the Jewish equivalent of Sharia law. A theocracy is their favored form of government, though they try not to say it directly. Lieberman, of course, totally opposes this idea.
I have a slim hope that the Likud-led right wing bloc will receive such a small majority that the coalition will have to include all the bloc's parties to pass the 61-member threshold. Then, maybe the disagreements between the fascists and theocrats will lead to Netanyahu's failure to form a government.
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"I have a slim hope that the Likud-led right wing bloc will receive such a small majority that the coalition will have to include all the bloc's parties to pass the 61-member threshold. Then, maybe the disagreements between the fascists and theocrats will lead to Netanyahu's failure to form a government."
ReplyDeleteIf so, would the 'losers' then have the right to try and form a government [w/o N.] or does it mean new elections? Or would N. then be forced to coalition with Kadima and Labor? Coalition politics is hard to grasp from the outside.
I hope this is a clear explanation of the legal side of it: The way it works is that the president gives the task of forming a government to the person most likely to succeed, based on recommendations from the parties in the new Knesset. If the first person the president nominates fails, the president can either nominate somebody else, or call for new elections. If the president calls for new elections, 61 Knesset members can force the president to nominate a certain person instead of going to a new vote.
ReplyDeleteNow, the political side of it is more complicated. If Netanyahu sees he can't form a government with the right, he can try to form a more centrist government. It can either be a government with just the three major parties (Likud, Kadima and Labor), or he could try to include both Labor or Kadima and a few right-wing parties. The question is whether Kadima and/or Labor would join such a government or decide to block Netanyahu's way to the prime minister's office.
I admit I don't really see a way Livni would be able to form her own coalition if Bibi fails. I'd say that in the unfortunately unlikely event that Bibi fails to form a coalition, we'll go to new elections.
Okay, that's pretty much along the lines of any other system of proportional representation. Now it's a matter of waiting for the outcome... Good post.
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