The Election Results Game

Many gambling websites have gamblers guessing how the 17th Knesset will be made up. I'm not a gambler, but just for the heck of it, I'm betting my virtual bucks on the following results:

Kadima - 31
Labor - 21
National Union-National Religious Party - 15
Likud - 13
Shas (ultra-orthodox Sephardim) - 12
Israel Our Home (the "Arab towns for Jewish settlements" party) - 10
United Torah Judaism (ultra-orthodox Ashkenazis) - 5
Meretz (left wing) - 5
Hadash (Communist Arab party) - 3
Ra'am-Ta'al (Islamic Arab party) - 3
Balad (Nationalist Arab party) - 2

The exact numbers aren't important. What is important is that I see a troubling trend coming. Kadima will not have more than 60 coalition members if it takes Labor and Meretz, and won't want to rely on the Arab parties so as not to be seen as a leftist party. The right wing and the religious parties will have a powerful bloc. Kadima may end up in a coalition with the right, or it may go with Labor and Likud as a unity government.

I also predict Likud will be down to fourth place, after the National Union-NRP list. Who knows, maybe Israel Our Home may even end up getting more votes than Likud, pushing it down to fifth. And maybe, just maybe, Shas will push it down to sixth. But that's a long-shot.

Tags: Israel, Israeli Politics, Politics, Israeli Elections