Asylum for Mubarak in Israel?

According to Labor Party MK and former cabinet minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer (Fuad), Israel offered Hosni Mubarak asylum in Eilat, after the former Egyptian president was forced to flee to Sharem Al-Sheikh. It would have probably been a sweet deal for Mubarak. After all, his trial began today in Cairo, and my guess is that he's never going to be released from prison.

What would have Israel gained from this? Nothing. I'm glad he didn't accept. Had he been granted asylum in Israel, it would only have created new tensions with the Egyptian people. I have no idea how the military rulers would have responded to such a development, though. On the one hand, they might have been happy not to have Mubarak around, and some of them may still be his cronies. On ther other, they could have felt pressure to confront Israel and have him extradited.

The Devil We Know

In the New York Times, Ross Douthat writes that we actually don't really know what will be next in Egypt, or what would be in America's (or Israel's) best interest. I rarely agree with the conservative Douthat, but I do this time.

One of the things he is right about is that it is quite possible that Mubarak's regime radicalized members of the Muslim Brotherhood who moved on to Al-Qaeda, like Ayman Al-Zawahiri. The big question now, though, is whether or not the people who remain in the Muslim Brotherhood are the ones who didn't become radicalized.

Fear of an Egyptian Islamic Revolution

Hosni Mubarak is a dictator. He is not good for his people. As a liberal, I should be delighted at the prospect of his overthrow, but I'm not. Who will replace him if the mass riots bring his downfall? Probably not the mild-mannered Muhammad El-Baradei, former chief of the International Atomic Energy Ageny. He isn't very popular in Egypt, despite the fact that he's the opposition leader who is most prominent in Western media. The most popular movement in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood, the undemocratic fanatically Islamist older brother (or father) of Hamas.

Having Hamas ruling Gaza is bad enough. Having a Hamas-like movement ruling all of Egypt, together with the prospect of Hezbollah ruling Lebanon, is quite a scary idea for us Israelis. But in a way, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt would be worse for Israelis than Hezbollah in Lebanon. We don't have a peace agreement with our northern neighbors anyway. With Egypt, there is a risk of this important Arab country rejoining the ranks of our enemies, and actively arming Hamas against us.

Egyptians, if you get rid of Mubarak, please don't replace him with religious zealots!