Israelis Unhappy With Netanyahu

Haaretz published a public opinion poll today with some interesting results (in Hebrew here, and in English here). A majority of Israelis (52%) are not satisfied with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's performance, while just 28% are satisfied. Ha'aretz notes that these are worse approval ratings than Ehud Olmert had after the botched Second Lebanon War. When asked whether Netanyahu is better than Olmert or not, a plurality of 31% said Netanyahu is worse, 28% said they are both the same, and 27% said Netanyahu is better. Considering how hated Olmert was, this is really striking.

I'm not sure how I'd answer that question. On the one hand, Netanyahu is extremely right wing in all areas of policy, while Olmert was supposedly a centrist leader. On the other, Olmert just gave lip service to peace without bringing about results, and his social and economic policies were just as conservative as Netanyahu's. On the peace front, at least we know where Bibi stands. Is it worse to openly oppose the two-state solution than to publicly embrace the idea without doing anything substantial to make it happen?

Speaking of the two-state solution, it is alive and well in the minds of the Israeli public. 57% of respondents in this poll said Netanyahu should tell Obama he accepts the idea of a Palestinian state. 35% say he shouldn't.

Olmert Has To Go

Israeli Attorney General Menny Mazuz announced yesterday that he will indict Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, pending a hearing. Olmert is suspected of billing several charitable foundations as well as the state for the same flights, and using the surplus for his family's personal travels.

Olmert resigned a few weeks ago, but is still officially the prime minister until the next government is formed. He should declare himself unable to carry out his duties and allow his deputy, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, to become Acting Prime Minister.

Instead of doing the right thing, Olmert (or, as the media calls it, "people close to Olmert") blasted the attorney general for not waiting until he becomes a former PM. I don't think Mazuz should have waited. Once he has enough evidence for an indictment, he should indict Olmert, just like any other suspect.

Bye-Bye Olmert and Mofaz, Hello Livni

Yesterday's Kadima leadership elections could not have produced a better outcome. Tzipi Livni, the most qualified candidate, won, and the least qualified candiate, Shaul Mofaz, lost, albeit by a very small margin, and is now taking a break from politics. Good riddance. Don't come back. Your services will not be required. In fact, because of your service, many people will have to work hard to clear the mess you left in the army and the ministries of defense and transportation.

Tzipi Livni's victory without a runoff also brings Ehud Olmert closer to the end of his prime ministership and his political career. Now, by the time Attorney General Menny Mazuz decides whether to prosecute him for corruption, as the police has recommended, he probably will no longer be in office. Indeed, Ehud Olmert may not only be nearing the end of his life as a politician, but he might also be nearing the end of his life as a free man.

I must say I don't like Livni as much as I used to, but of all the people in Kadima she is the best person for the job of prime minister. She'd also be better than Labor's Ehud Barak and Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu.

Brilliant Olmert Cartoon

By the way, the cartoon was in English in the original Hebrew edition of Haaretz today. This is not a translation.

Cartoon by Amos Biderman, Ha'aretz, July 21, 2008.

Peres and Olmert Love Bush

President Shimon Peres, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President George W. Bush spoke at an event commemorating sixty years of Israeli-American relations. President Bush was happy to hear, and moved by, the praise his Israeli hosts lavished upon him. I, on the other hand, found it embarrassing. They should have stuck to praising the American policy of friendship and support for Israel over the decades and given Dubya himself no more than a few token words. But no, they had to call him a great leader, a man with a vision, a champion of freedom and democracy, a man who history will treat kindly, blah blah blah.

Sure, they can't say how horrible a leader he really is. They can't say "Thank you, President Bush, for making Israel less safe by attacking a country that, as it turns out, was never really a threat to us and instead made it a breeding ground for Al-Qaeda and Shi'ite terrorism. We really appreciate the fact that now that you have failed in Iraq, the United States can't afford to face what seems to be a greater threat than Saddam Hussein ever was". And the list of bad things goes on... They can't say all those things, but they shouldn't say what is at best a bunch of lies about how great he is (at best, since the worst case scenario is that they actually believe what they are saying, which means our leaders have horrible judgment).

The event tonight was part of a conference about the future of Israel, organized by President Peres. Channel 1, the public channel that is owned by the government but supposedly independent from it, showed the whole US-Israel event, including the video clips about the history of the two countries' ties with each other. I felt like I was watching North Korean or Cuban TV. The clips weren't mini-documentaries but rather straight out of the PR department. It was absolutely ridiculous.

The Incompetance of Olmert

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is presenting the Winograd Commission's Report about the conduct of the Second Lebanon War as a vindication of his leadership. That is a super-spin, and it seems to be working perfectly. Those calling for his resignation seem to have lost the will to fight. That's too bad, since the report actually shows that Olmert is not fit to lead the country.

Sadly, I do not see Olmert resigning any time soon. He'll countinue to muddle through for at least another year, while pretending to move the peace process with the Palestinians forward. He won't actually do anything real. He will not get rid of illegal settlements (maybe one or two small ones). He won't discuss the real issues with the Palestinians for fear of Shas quitting the coalition. When the elections do come along, Bibi Netanyahu will be elected and everything will go even further down hill.

There is also a more optimistic scenario where Olmert resigns and is replaced by someone like Zipi Livni, who then goes on to really negotiate with the Palestinians and get serious progress, resulting in the defeat of Netanyahu in the next general election. Pure fantasy.

Good Riddance

The current Israeli government still sucks, but it is a little bit better than it was last week. Avigdor Lieberman, the Minister of Strategic Threats, has resigned and pulled his semi-fascist party Israel Beytenu (Israel Our Home) out of the coalition.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert should seize the opportunity to show he means business with regard to the peace process. Until now he was only going through the motions while doing nothing on the ground. Here's what he has to do:

• Get rid of illegal settlements. Reject Ehud Barak's agreement with the settlers, whereby they abandon the illegal outposts in exchange for expansion of legal settlements. The government must destroy all illegal settlements and completely freeze the expansion of the settlements which are legal under Israeli law.
• Get rid of the Ministry of Strategic Threats. Not only does the name sound like it is straight out of 1984, but aren't strategic threats something the Defense Ministry is supposed to deal with? Besides, it was only created for Lieberman. Just like he shouldn't be a cabinet member, strategic threats shouldn't be a cabinet ministry.
• Do anything in your power to make the lives of Palestinians in the West Bank as good as possible, so they will see that negotiations rather than violence are the way to a better life. However, don't make the lives of Palestinians in Gaza completely miserable, either. It is both immoral and stupid. It would only bring about more animosity towards Israel.

Bush's Biggest Fan

The George W. Bush Fan Club has very few members, but it looks like Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is applying for the job of chairman of its Israeli chapter. All the praise the Israeli chief executive lavished upon his American counterpart was way overboard and very embarrassing.

When Bush first landed in Israel, he told President Shimon Peres and Prime Minister Olmert something like "this is a very nice ceremony. It's more than I deserve". That's certainly true about Olmert's Bushophilic superlatives.

Bush and Olmert have something in common: they are two horrible leaders whose commitment to pushing the Israeli-Palestinian peace process forward, as opposed to just going through the motions, is still in question. Maybe that's why Olmert loves Bush so much - they're two of a kind.

Unhappy Anniversary

It's the one year anniversary of the Second Lebanon War. Hizbullah still has Israel's soldiers and we still have Ehud Olmert as our Prime Minister, despite the Winograd commission's findings of incompetence. Just great, huh?

So, will we have any war with Syria this year? Two back to back wars are not a good idea (just look at Afghanistan and Iraq). The Middle East needs to wait a while till its next frivolous war.

This Week in Failed Prime Ministers (FPMs)

It was a good week for our current FPM, Ehud Olmert. The election of former FPM Ehud Barak as chairman of the Labor Party and the election of PFPM (Partially Failed PM) Shimon Peres as the next president of Israel, allow him to stay in office for a while longer. Former FPM Benjamin Netanyahu was humiliated when the Likud's presidential nominee, Ruby Rivlin got only 37 votes in the Knesset.

I used to have a fantasy about Israel's next general elections. I hoped we may get a chance to pick between two great candidates for prime minister: Avishai Braverman of Labor, and Tzipi Livni of Kadima. Now that seems far fetched. Even if Livni will be Kadima's next nominee, the real fight will be between two very bad options. So, which FPM is the lesser of evils - Bibi or Barak? Barak, but not by much.

Meanwhile in Gaza, the results of former FPM Ariel Sharon's policy of unilateral withdrawal are now proving that the disengagement was a disaster. Most Israelis believe Sharon was one of our greatest leaders, but he was not. His insistence on pulling out of Gaza without talking to the other side was a mistake for which we will pay for a very long time.

But I'll end on an optimistic note. The day Shimon Peres was elected president also saw the conclusion of a 3-day conference of Israeli and Palestinian peace NGOs in Tuscany, Italy, organized by the Peres Center for Peace. Representatives of over 100 organizations participated and discussed ways to promote peace even while our governments aren't negotiating with each other. One of the conference's achievements was the creation of a network of NGOs who will now cooperate with each other. Hey, there may still be some hope yet.

Over 100,000 Protesters Demand Olmert's Resignation

Organisers of the protest rally in Tel Aviv's Rabin Square say that as much as 200,000 people are in attendance. Police estimates are more modest, saying there are more than 100,000 protesters. Is this enough? No. There have to be a lot of demonstrations over time to get Olmert to do the right thing and resign. Are Israelis angry enough to make sure the prime minister gets the message that, as author Meir Shalev put it at today's rally, Olmert is fired? I'm not sure.

Since yesterday, somehow, Tzipi Livni seems to be under fire more than Olmert. Critics say she should have been bold enough to resign. As I've said previously, why the hell should one of our best, most intelligent ministers leave the government to the fools that the Winograd Commission criticized?!? Olmert and Peretz should resign, not Livni.

Olmert, Don't You Dare Fire Livni!

Rumor has it that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert wants to fire Foreign Minister and Deputy PM Tzipi Livni. This, as a response to the fact that she called for his resignation. A possible replacement would be the current minister of transportation and former Defense Minister, Shaul Mofaz. This would be a grave mistake for many reasons.

First of all, Tzipi Livni was the only cabinet minister to be praised by the Winograd Commission. If the rebuked prime minister and defense minister stay, and only Livni goes, replaced by Mofaz, who may still be criticized by the final Winograd Report regarding his days as IDF chief of staff and defense minister, then this horrible government would become even worse. Mofaz hasn't been a great leader, and if Olmert eventually resigns while Mofaz is his deputy, the chances of this mediocre (at best) politician becoming prime minister will be greater.

Also, the Israeli cabinet is different from the US cabinet in the fact that its members do not serve at the pleasure of the chief executive. Personal loyalty to the prime minister is never a requirement. So, Livni calling for Olmert's resignation is not reason enough for him to fire her. Certainly not under the current circumstances.

Firing Livni may be the straw that breaks Israelis' backs. Livni is much more popular that Olmert, Peretz and all other cabinet ministers, maybe except for Peres. I know I'd certainly have much more motivation to go to a demonstration calling for Olmert's resignation if he had the Chutzpah to get rid of the one person who performed well during the Second Lebanon War. And I don't mean Chutzpah in a good way.

Tzipi Livni or Meir Sheetrit for Prime Minister

Ehud Olmert has been a colossal failure as prime minister of Israel. The Winograd Commission's partial report, released Monday, supplied an abundance of evidence demonstrating he is unfit for leadership. The Second Lebanon War is far from being his only failure. He must step down.

I do not want new elections now. If that happens, we will have Benjamin Netanyahu as our prime minister. Last time he was our chief executive, 1996-1999, he was a terrible leader. His election would be disastrous to any peace efforts, among other things.

For fear of Netanyahu's election, the only good solution I can see is for the government to choose a new prime minister from among Kadima's current cabinet ministers. The best choice would be Tzipi Livni, the deputy prime minister and foreign minister, but the ultra-orthodox Shas party and the ultra-right wing Israel Beytenu (Israel Our Home) may leave the coalition if she is selected. I'd be happy to see these two parties out of the government, but without them the government wouldn't have a parliamentary majority and there would be new elections.

The second best choice is Minister of Housing and Construction Meir Sheetrit. He has been calling for negotiations with the Arab League (and says we should talk to them in Arabic, not English) and has done well in his various cabinet posts. Israel Beytenu would probably leave the government, which is very good, but Shas would stick by him. After all, for the Sephardic Shas not to support Israel's first Moroccan prime minister would be unthinkable.

I hope Shimon Peres won't be Olmert's replacement as prime minister. His testimony before the Winograd Commission showed that loyalty to the prime minister is more important to him than loyalty to what is best for the country. He told the commission he thought the government was making the wrong decisions but said nothing at the cabinet meetings. That is also why he should not be president after Moshe Katzav.